Do Defenses Win Championships?

[Reignman]

I looked at every playoff game since 1970 (912 games) to find out.

Here's what the following numbers mean. The first block of numbers is the record of teams that have an offensive advantage over their opponents defense. And by advantage I mean their offensive rank in a particular category is at least 10 positions better than their opponents defensive rank in the same category. For example, if a team ranked 5th in the league in scoring offense (most points scored), their opponent had to rank worse than 15th in scoring defense (fewest points allowed) for it to count. There were 134 playoff games that featured such a match-up and the team with the offensive scoring advantage won 78 of those games. Total offense would be teams who ranked higher in total yards (again by 10+ positions) than their opponent ranked in total yards allowed etc.

Then I flipped the script and went by teams that were 10+ position better in defensive categories for the last block of numbers for a comparison. I wanted to see how well good offenses fared vs lesser defenses, and good defenses vs lesser offenses. Advantage defense.
scoring off vs scoring def         78-56  0.582
tot off vs tot def                101-67  0.601
pass off vs pass def              122-109 0.528
rush off vs rush def               84-63  0.571

scoring def vs scoring off         73-30  0.709
tot def vs tot off                104-61  0.630
pass def vs pass off              106-81  0.567
rush def vs rush off              112-81  0.580

And the records with any kind of advantage. It's a little closer with no clear advantage.
scoring off vs scoring def        252-180 0.583
tot off vs tot def                249-203 0.551
pass off vs pass def              255-217 0.540
rush off vs rush def              214-171 0.556

scoring def vs scoring off        251-176 0.588
tot def vs tot off                225-190 0.542
pass def vs pass off              222-183 0.548
rush def vs rush off              269-214 0.557

When the teams are evenly matched (within 2 ranks of each other), there appears to be a slight offensive advantage.
scoring (advantage def)           125-110 0.532
tot yards (advantage off)         106-94  0.530
passing yards (advantage off)      77-72  0.517
rushing yards (advantage off)      88-86  0.506

How about how well the #1 ranked team has done in each category overall? #1 offenses tend to do slightly better than #1 defenses, until it comes to passing and rushing.
off scoring                        64-31  0.674
off total yards                    51-27  0.654
off passing yards                  28-27  0.509
off rushing yards                  31-30  0.508

def scoring                        63-32  0.663
def total yards                    47-30  0.610
def passing yards                  32-18  0.640
def rushing yards                  37-31  0.544

#1 vs #1. The unstoppable force vs the immovable object. Advantage immovable object. The lone win for the #1 pass offense vs the #1 pass defense came in 1970. The 49ers #1 pass offense beat the Vikings #1 pass defense 17-14. John Brodie went 16/32 for 201 yards and a TD. Only the 2nd time all year the Vikings allowed a 200 yard passer. In 14 games the 12-2 Vikings defense allowed an average of only 102.7 yards passing per game. We held 8 opponents below 100 in fact. In other words, they saved yet another let down for a home playoff game lol.
#1 scoring off vs #1 scoring def    6-7   0.462
#1 total off vs #1 total def        2-5   0.286
#1 pass off vs #1 pass def          1-4   0.200
#1 rush off vs #1 rush def          2-3   0.400

And finally, average ranks of Super Bowl winners vs Super Bowl losers since 1970 (Super Bowl 5). I go by 1970 because before that the teams were in separate leagues with separate ranks, which messes everything up. (lower the better)
                      winner - loser
scoring offense          6.04 - 5.63
total offense            8.20 - 7.13
passing offense         10.89 - 9.98
rushing offense          9.46 - 10.46

scoring defense          5.61 - 7.57
total defense            7.07 - 9.91
passing defense         11.30 - 13.54
rushing defense          7.57 - 9.26

[Reignman]

Next I'll take a look at the same criteria for playoff games between 2002-2015 to see if offense has had more of an advantage recently. The game has swung so heavily toward the offensive side of the ball in the last 2 decades that it wouldn't surprise me.

[beckmt]

A great defense helps, but only if you have an offense that has a pulse, and does not drop passes.

[Deleted]

Well the old saying goes "defense wins championships"

[Reignman]

I used to believe part of the equation with the whole "defense wins championship" theory was how playoff games were played in January. I thought maybe the cold affected offenses more, especially the QB who has to throw a frozen football and receivers who have to catch it, and maybe teams even deciding to run it more, but the numbers don't reflect that theory. Scoring and yards go up in January.

Month     games   p/g    yds/g  to/g
August       28  20.86  320.11  1.75
September  4584  20.61  320.99  2.01
October    5352  20.66  319.54  2.04
November   5590  20.74  319.89  2.01
December   5080  20.86  320.49  1.99
January     302  21.72  331.95  1.84
Playoffs    912  21.65  326.19  2.07