Vikings 2024 UDFAs

[Purple Pain]

Apr 27, 2024 18:37:08 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Well, I must say I already love this UDFA class, just like last year. They nabbed 3 of my top 22 UDFAs - ED Murphy (clear cut #1), CB McGlothern, and S Richter. All three of those guys are way better than the two 7th rounders. I suppose they didn't take them there because they figured they'd land them in UDFA?

Arif Hasan: Ranking the UDFA Classes With the Consensus Big Board

Who Won Undrafted Free Agency?

For this, I used the tracker provided by Alex Katson from the Two Gap Substack to isolate undrafted free agents — and to separate them out from players offered a tryout.

I matched those players to the Consensus Big Board, which needed to be expanded to include some players that were signed and on multiple boards. I was asked earlier why I didn’t share the rankings outside of the Top 300 and the reason is because it both puts strain on mobile browsers and/or website infrastructure and that it lacks a bit of fidelity outside of 300.

With new UDFAs signed, I can add more players to the Consensus Board, so long as they are ranked by at least three analysts. The good news is that this did not produce any players that sneaked into the Top 300, or even the Top 500. Only 21 players were signed by teams that were not ranked by at least three analysts, compared to the 371 that we have a record of having signed a team.

If you want it, a spreadsheet of the Top 874 players can be found at the original Top 300 link, but in the tab labeled “Bigger Board”.

To grade the teams, I used a different definition of “value,” essentially giving 999 points of value to the top-ranked player (Marvin Harrison) and going down the board, subtracting 1,000 from a player’s rank to produce their point value. I wanted to use this instead of a logarithmic definition of value like that’s used in the draft because the values between players don’t drop off all that dramatically after the draft is over.

Total value and value of the top five players signed by the teams below:



The Vikings led the league, once again, in UDFA value. Their class is headlined by the top-ranked UDFA Gabriel Murphy, an edge rusher from UCLA and the ninth-ranked UDFA Dwight McGlothern, CB from Arkansas.

By Consensus, they ranked 111th and 189th — not just Top 300 players, but Top 200 players. The Vikings were the only team with two players signed from the Top 200.

They added one more in the Top 300: Trey Knox, TE from South Carolina, ranked 294th.

The Panthers led the league in Top 300 signings, having acquired Jalen Coker (243rd), Andrew Raym (255th), Willie Drew (266th), Demani Richardson (287th) and Jaden Shirden (300th).

[Purple Pain]

The Athletic - 2024 NFL best UDFA fits: One undrafted prospect to watch on each roster

Minnesota Vikings: Gabriel Murphy, Edge, UCLA

The Vikings also had a big UDFA class, with standouts including OTs Doug Nester and Jeremy Flax and LB Dallas Gant. But Murphy, No. 127 on Brugler’s final board, looks like the best of the group. Undersized (6-2, 247) with short arms, Murphy is an incredibly explosive athlete (39 1/2-inch vertical at the combine, tied for best among edge rushers; 1.59 10-yard split on a 4.68 40). His first step is great, and he’s filled with counter moves.

[Purple Pain]

Warren Ludford: Looking for this year’s Ivan Pace Jr.? Check out Bo Richter

Traits

Richter as a bigger, more athletic version of Ivan Pace Jr., closer to a traditional linebacker in size, but with modern linebacker athleticism. Similar arm length and hand size as Pace.



...

Scouting Report

Lance Zierlein, NFL.com

Overview

Richter is an undersized edge defender with short arms, but his athletic profile gives him a chance to compete for a roster spot. He has muscles on muscles and a strong base that allows him to play through edges and maintain balance at contact. He also has plus pursuit speed and racked up impact stats on the other side of the line. His rush is more effort-based than skilled, and that production might not translate as a pro. However, his pro day testing was terrific, and he plays with a nice GPS toward the ball. Richter might need to prove he can play off-ball linebacker, but his traits and special-teams potential should help his chances.

Strengths

Muscular frame with exceptional lower-body explosiveness.

Posted 19.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in 2023.

Ignites a big burst to close on quarterbacks in the pocket.

Fluid in his change of direction in pursuit of his target.

Sturdy balance through contact when taking on blocks.

Weaknesses

Severe lack of length hinders opportunities as an edge rusher.

Average short-area quickness in his rush counters.

Upper body is a little tight in attempts to flip the corner.

Engulfed and neutralized by size as a run defender.



Bottom Line

Richter would likely need to make the transition from outside to inside linebacker to make the Vikings roster, but he definitely has the traits to do so successfully. In fact, he would be a great fit in Brian Flores’ defense in that role, given his ability to rush the passer while also being able to play coverage.

Richter did not play much inside linebacker with Air Force but did have some snaps there. His strengths align with what is desired in an inside linebacker, while his weaknesses are more in his role as an edge rusher.

If he can successfully transition to inside linebacker, Richter could not only make the Vikings roster, he could become a contributor on defense and special teams as well.

[Danchat]

I could see Richter becoming a stud special teamer... I don't foresee him playing much on defense. Maybe he could work in a small role as a blitzer, but as of right now he's clearly behind top tier UDFAs like Carter II and G Murphy.

[Drank]

I like the CB as much as Gabriel Murphy . McGlothern a sleeper.

[Uncle]

May 6, 2024 15:16:27 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I don't foresee him playing much on defense. Maybe he could work in a small role as a blitzer, but as of right now he's clearly behind top tier UDFAs like Carter II and G Murphy.

I wonder if Richter could possibly play a bit of off-ball/inside LB vs outside LB/EDGE and he could work his way onto the team that way. There could be a bit of a battle for the backup LB spots behind Cashman & Pace with Asamoah not exactly a 100% "lock", IMO. And behind Asamoah you have a wide-open competition between Kamu Grugier-Hill, Abraham Beauplan, and fellow UDFA's Dallas Gant & Donovan Manuel.

Luke Braun had an intersting episode of "Locked on Vikings" last week where he brought on Rivals.com reporter/publisher Kevin Fielder, who specializes in the small-school prospects and gives his takes on the Vikings UDFA beyond just Murphy & McGlothern. This is a pretty good podcast to listen too and both Fielder & Braun come to the conclusion that it's going to be a bit difficult to make the roster this season in terms of being a core ST player because the Vikings already have one in NaJee Thompson and teams rarely have more than 1 ST-only player on their 53-man roster, and basically the 2024 Vikings UDFA player(s) that will end up making it will be because they can play on offense/defense moreso than ST. If that's the case, and Richter's shot at getting onto the 53-man or PS roster as an EDGE are really slim, he might have more of a shot as an off-ball/ILB as a backup to Pace.

Fielder thinks that Toldedo's Dallas Gant and FIU's Donovan Manuel might have the best shot at the roster of the UDFA. He also has a segment that talks about the Mercer WR's, which I found interesting. Definitely a video/podcast worth checking out in the offseason and before OTA's/TC to get to know a bit more about these smaller school prospects...

[vikingpwr]

May 6, 2024 15:30:27 GMT -6 Uncle said:

May 6, 2024 15:16:27 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I don't foresee him playing much on defense. Maybe he could work in a small role as a blitzer, but as of right now he's clearly behind top tier UDFAs like Carter II and G Murphy.

I wonder if Richter could possibly play a bit of off-ball/inside LB vs outside LB/EDGE and he could work his way onto the team that way. There could be a bit of a battle for the backup LB spots behind Cashman & Pace with Asamoah not exactly a 100% "lock", IMO. And behind Asamoah you have a wide-open competition between Kamu Grugier-Hill, Abraham Beauplan, and fellow UDFA's Dallas Gant & Donovan Manuel.

Luke Braun had an intersting episode of "Locked on Vikings" last week where he brought on Rivals.com reporter/publisher Kevin Fielder, who specializes in the small-school prospects and gives his takes on the Vikings UDFA beyond just Murphy & McGlothern. This is a pretty good podcast to listen too and both Fielder & Braun come to the conclusion that it's going to be a bit difficult to make the roster this season in terms of being a core ST player because the Vikings already have one in NaJee Thompson and teams rarely have more than 1 ST-only player on their 53-man roster, and basically the 2024 Vikings UDFA player(s) that will end up making it will be because they can play on offense/defense moreso than ST. If that's the case, and Richter's shot at getting onto the 53-man or PS roster as an EDGE are really slim, he might have more of a shot as an off-ball/ILB as a backup to Pace.

Fielder thinks that Toldedo's Dallas Gant and FIU's Donovan Manuel might have the best shot at the roster of the UDFA. He also has a segment that talks about the Mercer WR's, which I found interesting. Definitely a video/podcast worth checking out in the offseason and before OTA's/TC to get to know a bit more about these smaller school prospects...

Out of the 24 players (7 drafted 17 undrafted free agents) what players IYO will make the final 53 and why? 

[Uncle]

May 7, 2024 1:13:55 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Out of the 24 players (7 drafted 17 undrafted free agents) what players IYO will make the final 53 and why? 

Mind you, it's May 7th and the rookies haven't even been through their Rookie Minicamp yet, so these opinions are subject to change, but as of now, here are the rookies I think have a shot:

Will Make the 53-man Roster: QB JJ McCarthy, EDGE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson, OT Walter Rouse, K Will Reichard
It's rare that players drafted in Rounds 1-4 don't make the initial 53-man roster and you have to go back to Willie Beavers in 2016 for the last time a 4th Rd player didn't initially make it and Khyree is certainly a much better prospect that Beavers was. I think Rouse will get in as the 4th OT on the roster consisting of Darrisaw, O'Neill, Quesenbury & Rouse, and Brandel can "moonlight" at OT if there are a rash of injuries there. If Reichard doesn't make the team then it's another in the long list of "fails" at that position, and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt with the new coaching staff. 

50/50 Shot at Making the 53-man Roster: IOL Michael Jurgens, EDGE Gabriel Murphy, NT Taki Taimani, one of LB Bo Richter/Dallas Gant/Donovan Manuel
They'll probably carry 9 OL on the 53-man roster and we already have 4 of those 9 slots filled with OT"s (mentioned above), so that leaves five IOL players - three starters and two reserves, and right now it appears Dan Feeney (much to my chagrin) will fill one of the two reserve spots leaving the other up-for-grabs in Training Camp. Jurgens has a solid advantage because of his experience (he's 24) and versatility playing OC and OG and he'll get a decent shot to make it. Plus Ryan Grigson mentioned in the post-Draft pressers that they've had their "eye" on Jurgens for the past few seasons so this is a prospect they really seem to like. Murphy has to battle Andre Carter II and Jihad Ward for the 5th OLB/EDGE spot (behind Greenard, Van Ginkel, Turner & Pat Jones II) and I think he's got a fair shot to win that battle depending on how Carter II is developing. The Vikings did carry a reserve NT in Tonga last season and without another big body like his on the depth chart, Taimani has a fair shot to win that 5th interior DT job; plus, Taki - like Jurgens - is 24 and has plenty of experience. I also believe that there will be a Training Camp/Preseason battle for the 3rd & 4th and ILB/off-ball LB spots behind Cashman & Pace as I don't think Asamoah is a complete "shoe-in" to make the final roster this season, and that leaves Richter, Gant & Manuel squarely in-the-mix during August to win one of those 2 spots along with Grugier-Hill. 

1-in-4 (25%) Odds at Making the 53-man Roster: DT Levi Drake Rodriguez, CB Dwight McGlothern, TE Trey Knox, WR Devron Harper, WR Ty James
Rodriguez is a great story and from what we know, he'll certainly work his tail off trying to make the team this summer, but I do have a hard time envisioning he makes it given the leap in competition from Texas A&M-Commerce to the NFL. I do believe the coaching staff will want him on the PS to give him a full season of NFL weight-training and he might be called up to the active roster at some point during the 2024 Regular Season, but I can't see him making the initial cut. I'd give McGlothern a better shot if the CB room weren't so crowded and even though I think Evans and Booth, Jr. are certainly not "locks" to make it, we still have Murphy, Blackmon, Griffin, Jackson and even Jojuan Williams to battle and we'll certainly carry a full compliment of Safties, too. It's possible the CB battles in Training Camp will be the most "heated" with all the competition which gives McGlothern a longer shot of making it - I just hope they can get the "losers" of those August battles on the PS without getting plucked. We need a TE on the PS and Knox makes sense and depending on how Muse does early in the season with Hock out, perhaps Knox gets an early call up to th active roster. Luke Braun and his Rivals.com guest talked about the two Mercy WR's on the YouTube video in my prior post and I found that discussion interesting and thought enough that one of them might have a longshot to be WR5 over Nailor/T Jackson/Sherfield.

Virtually No Shot at Making the 53-man Roster: IOL Matt Cindric, OT Jeremy Flax, OL Doug Nester, OT Spencer Rolland, WR Jeshaun Jones, LB KJ Cloyd, OLB Owen Porter, DL Tyler Manoa
I do think some of these players will stick on the PS (one OT - Flax or Rolland - will have a shot at the PS) and possibly and DL (Porter or Manoa), but it's hard to envision WR Jones getting on the PS, much less the 53-man roster with the amount of bodies there and the same goes for Cloyd & Porter. 

[vikingpwr]

May 7, 2024 9:17:25 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Jurgens has a solid advantage because of his experience (he's 24) and versatility playing OC and OG and he'll get a decent shot to make it. Plus Ryan Grigson mentioned in the post-Draft pressers that they've had their "eye" on Jurgens for the past few seasons so this is a prospect they really seem to like.

That's nice to hear about a young prospect. I'm real interested to see how the interior OL shakes out.

Thanks for the feedback.

[Funkytown]

💥DL Taki Taimani: $100K
💥TE Trey Knox: 130K
💥OL Doug Nestor: 85K

[FSUVike]

May 20, 2024 8:57:13 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

💥DL Taki Taimani: $100K
💥TE Trey Knox: 130K
💥OL Doug Nestor: 85K

Interesting amount for Jeshaun Jones. Almost suggests that he might be the expected competition for Naillor that we've been looking for Kwesi to add all offseason.

[Danchat]

Murphy's amount makes sense, but McGlothern came far cheaper than expected. Jeshaun Jones getting $235K is a surprise, I don't have anything on him other than Brugler's limited info on him as WR56.

He didn't exactly produce big-time at Maryland, but other teams were bidding on him so perhaps he could crack the roster and push the other WRs on the depth chart.

[Funkytown]

[Purple Pain]

More from Arif's article shared above.

Which Matters More? Money or Rank?

For example, Kaevon Merriweather only received $15,000 in guaranteed money when he signed with the Buccaneers – tied for 192nd among the undrafted free agents we have data for. However, he was the 22nd-ranked undrafted free agent by the Consensus Big Board. Given that he made the Buccaneers initial 53-man roster, one could call this a “win” for the board.

On the other hand, the highly-ranked Emil Ekiyor Jr. didn’t make the Indianapolis Colts roster or their practice squad in 2022. He was the third-highest ranked undrafted free agent in the class but didn’t draw much of a market, only getting $5,000 – ranking 276th among undrafted free agents. The guaranteed money provided a pretty significant signal there.

Of course, players with no guaranteed money or acclaim by the Consensus Big Board made teams. Markees Watts only earned $1,000 in guaranteed money from the Buccaneers and was unranked by the board.

He nevertheless made the Buccaneers roster after a great preseason. Anthony Kendall and NaJee Thompson received no guaranteed money and hadn’t garnered the attention of third-party draft analysts. They both made their teams.

There will always be a chance for players without guaranteed money or third-party acclaim to make the roster – that’s why they hold training camp and play in the preseason games. Many of the players who don’t make the initial 53-man team will make the practice squad for their original signing team or even make the rosters of other teams.

It’s important to understand that this is only measured against the team that initially signed the undrafted free agent. That means that Emanuel Wilson does not count as a “hit” because he initially signed with the Denver Broncos before signing with the Packers – even though he was only on the Broncos roster for three days.

There are other limitations as well. This only measures the first year that an undrafted free agent has an opportunity to make the roster. Adam Thielen is a good example of a starting-quality player who didn’t make the roster his rookie year, instead spending 2013 on the practice squad before rising up the ranks.

Because we’re focused on college free agents in their first year of NFL eligibility, we’ll also have to ignore players like Dee Alford, who did not sign with a team coming out of college. Alford instead played in the CFL for two years before signing with the Atlanta Falcons and playing a key role as a defensive back.

When accounting for the high correlation between Consensus Big Board rank and guaranteed money (a correlation of -0.48) one can construct a simple model that projects likelihood for undrafted free agents. The base make rate is about nine percent, and a higher consensus board rank and/or a higher guaranteed salary have an equal chance of helping or hurting those odds in the model, from a maximum of 33 percent to a minimum of 4 percent.

The highest odds over the past three years belonged to Andre Carter II, Carson Strong, Sammis Reyes, Ivan Pace Jr., Lonnie Phelps, Marvin Wilson, Mario Goordich, Rakim Jarrett, Abram Smith, Bruce Ford-Wheaton, Kennedy Brooks, Kevin Austin Jr., Ronnie Hickman, McClendon Curtis and Jason Brownlee.

That group had an average projected make rate of 30.0 percent, with seven of those 16 making the roster. Reyes had the third-highest odds of the group of making the roster despite not being ranked by the Consensus Big Board, a product of his group-leading guaranteed salary of $392,000.

Phelps, Brooks and Austin all made their teams’ initial practice squads while Ford-Wheaton was placed on injured reserve before roster cuts. This seems like a good model not just for predicting who will make their initial team rosters, but also the best candidates for the practice squad.

Of those ranked high on the Consensus Big Board without large guaranteed contracts, Eli Ricks, Jojo Domann, Jack Sanborn and Alaric Jackson all made their teams’ rosters. Cade Johnson, Marvin Wilson, Shakur Brown, Brandon Joseph and Matt Landers all made practice squads the day after their release.

Of those ranked high in guaranteed contract money without high rankings on the Consensus Big Board, Reyes, Kader Kohou, Nash Jensen, Brandon Pili, Kurt Hinish, Troy Haiston, DaMarcus Mitchell, Nate Adkins and Verone McKinley all made initial rosters. Rashid Shaheed, Hassan Hall, Malik Davis, Thayer Thomas and Daniel Arias all made initial practice squads.

Using the combined data from the guaranteed salary total and the Consensus Big Board, we can get a more solid understanding of which undrafted free agents might make the roster. No player in this position is going to be likely to make the roster, but some are much more likely than others.

To get an understanding of how the model works, we can look at two players who occupy opposite ends of the spectrum. An unranked player with a high guarantee, like Louis Rees-Zammit, has a 16.2 percent chance of making the roster, according to the model.

That model probably doesn’t work well for players like Rees-Zammit or Reyes, who have roster exemptions for their participation in the International Player Pathway Program. NFL teams will make decisions on those kinds of players with different constraints in mind.

The highest-guaranteed total given to an unranked domestic player belongs to Andrew Parker Jr., a linebacker from Appalachian State who signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars with $215,000 of his salary guaranteed.

There are no players who are highly ranked with no guaranteed money, but the closest are Dwight McGlothern (ranked 189th with a guarantee of $20,000), Julian Pearl (ranked 238th with a guarantee of $5,000) and Beanie Bishop Jr. (ranked 291st with no guaranteed money). Their projected odds are 12.7 percent, 10.5 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively.

In theory, a player with $350,000 guaranteed and ranked 100th on the Consensus Board would have projected odds of making the roster at 33.8 percent. An unranked player with that guarantee would have projected odds of 21.4 percent while a player ranked 100th with no guaranteed money would have projected odds of 15.8 percent. If they were ranked first overall, their odds would be 46.9 percent with no guarantee and 64.8 percent with the maximum guarantee.

[Danchat]